2010 E3 Impressions

After lots of refreshing of browsers and watching of many videos, I believe I have a good idea of how this year's E3 turned out. First, I'll give you my gamer impressions.

Sony fails to deliver anything interesting again this year. I don't see myself buying a Move or PSeye or any PS3 or PSP games or systems. Sorry, Sony, you got my money for your first two PlayStations, but not again. Maybe next generation.

Microsoft has barely convinced me to keep my 360 plugged in, but the games I do want for the system I actually want to buy. I'm a sucker for Castlevania games, and I have pretty fond memories of Hydro Thunder, so the Summer of Arcade they have going on soon will be where I spend my MS points.

Nintendo will be draining my wallet again this year with so many cool things coming out soon. Kirby looks good, but I know my roommate will buy it first, so I can pick up Donkey Kong Country Returns. The 3DS is a must-have, as well. For Wii, I want the new GoldenEye, DKCR, and Zelda: Skyward Sword. For DS, I want the new Golden Sun, and Pokemon Black. For 3DS, I want the new Kid Icarus, Mario Kart, Star Fox 64, Zelda: Ocarina of Time, Pilotwings Resort, Metal Gear, and Professor Layton. Gah, too much.

Okay, now it's time to put the business hat on.

Sony fails to deliver anything interesting again this year. Why are they showing PSP commercials during a press conference? I don't see anything that would drive the system sales up very far. Their big bets are on Move and 3D gaming, but both motion control and 3D visuals are available elsewhere for much cheaper. Why bother with a $2000 TV with extra glasses for each person anyway? Something like this, in an economy like this, is destined for failure. Plus, it raises a few questions. How would someone who needs glasses normally wear 3D glasses? How uncomfortable would that be? How uncomfortable are the glasses in the first place? What if you only have enough glasses for your family, and some friends come over and want to watch a movie? Can you turn the 3D off on a 3D movie? Where is the 3D content? People who are interested in actually buying things like this have these questions, so it's up to companies like Sony to provide the answers. So far, the answers are not adequate for adoption if you ask me. Maybe next generation.

Microsoft has a lot riding on Kinect, and their marketing budget shows it. From broadcasting a show in Times Square, hiring Cirque de Soleil to show off Kinect, dedicating 3/4 of their time to shine on Kinect this year, they're pushing pretty hard here. The problem lies in their opening lineup, though. With 4 fitness games, 3 sports compilations and 2 dance games making up more than half their launch library, it's becoming clear (or at least sending the message) that Kinect functionality is fairly limited in scope. It doesn't matter the hype, if the games don't deliver, the word will spread quickly and sales will drop dramatically. That's the thing about hype. You will get sales on opening day, no doubt. But true staying power only happens when the games are good. I see bunches of Wii knock-offs here and even there the success is limited to quality products only. Also marking against Kinect is the fact that it is still an optional add-on device. The most successful add-on ever is the Wii balance board, so they might be right in that using Kinect as a fitness aid may be a good idea, but they might be wrong in that the ship has already sailed on that one, and most anyone interested in health and gaming has already picked up Wii Fit+ and EA Active. Who knows, except I'm sure that after launch, no fitness product for Kinect will succeed, considering how saturated the launch will be.

Nintendo is a brutal company to work against. They've been two steps ahead of the competition this whole generation. They're making Microsoft and Sony look foolish now that their consoles need motion controls, and not the other way around. Plus, with how long it took for them to get up to speed on that front, Nintendo is already established market leader and ready to take customers into their core market base with bridge games with mass market appeal. Plus, with the 3DS, Sony's portable market is destined to shrink from launch day forward. Sony managed 31% of the market, more than any other portable competitor ever, so their unprecedented feat didn't go unnoticed. This, though, is the coup de grace. If Nintendo had their way, Sony's PSP will be irrelevant in 2 years. Sony will have to put out a great new PSP that does everything 3DS does and better, but by then, Nintendo's market will have already established, and they will be forced to play keep up. It wasn't a lack of competition that gave the Game Boy its dominating success, but a lack of competence in its competition. It was about 7 years ago that Nintendo held 95% of the portable market, and a look back at portable history will show many machines in the graveyard, all of them more capable than the Game Boy. If Sony rushes the next portable out, it will be dead on arrival.

So there you have it. Questions, comments, concerns, you know where to put 'em.